Chronicle of the Crisis

Bipartisan War Powers resolutions to limit Trump's military operations in Iran are headed for defeat in Congress. The Senate will vote Wednesday and the House Thursday, but Republicans have rallied behind the president. Even if the resolutions pass, they would not reach the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto.

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia called it "an illegal war," stating: "The Constitution says no declaration of war without Congress." Senator Mark Warner, following a classified briefing, said: "There was no imminent threat to the United States of America by the Iranians. There was a threat to Israel."

According to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, Trump's approval has dropped to 38%, with 59% disapproving - a record low for this term. 51% "strongly disapprove," the first time it has exceeded 50% in either term. Only 29% of independents approve of Trump.

The DOJ dropped cases against four major law firms (Perkins Coie, WilmerHale, Jenner & Block, Susman Godfrey) that had won rulings against Trump's executive orders. Other prestigious firms agreed to provide nearly $1 billion in pro bono legal work for Trump instead of going to court.

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran enters day three with dramatic escalation. Six American service members have been killed and 18 seriously wounded since the conflict began. In Kuwait, three U.S. jets were mistakenly shot down by the allied nation's air defenses.

Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacked ships attempting passage. Traffic through the strait has completely stopped, blocking the flow of one-fifth of the world's oil and sending prices surging. Iran also struck diplomatic targets, including a drone attack on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh.

At least 787 people have been killed in Iran according to state media and the Iranian Red Crescent, including over 160 students (mostly girls) and 14 teachers in an elementary school struck Saturday. Golestan Palace in Tehran, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was damaged.

Secretary of State Rubio said 9,000 Americans have been evacuated from the Middle East in 72 hours, with another 1,500 requesting help. The Dow Jones plunged over 1,000 points (2.1%), while more than a million people were stranded with 1,900 flights canceled.

The United States and Israel launched a massive joint military attack on Iran - the most sweeping American military operation in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, was killed along with his daughter and grandchild. At least 40 Iranian officials died, including the defense minister and chief of staff.

Trump declared in an 8-minute video at 2:30 AM that the objective is "regime change" in Iran. He urged Iranians to "take over your government." Over 100 children were killed in a strike on an elementary school in Minab. The Red Crescent reported 201 civilians killed and 747 wounded on the first day.

Democrats reacted with outrage. Senator Ed Markey called the attack "illegal and unconstitutional" because it was not approved by Congress. Schumer demanded an immediate briefing for all senators. Democrats, along with Republicans Rand Paul and Thomas Massie, are demanding a War Powers vote to constrain Trump. Massie: "I am opposed to this War. This is not 'America First.'"

Iran responded with missiles and drones, hitting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The conflict has spread across the region. Republican leaders Thune and Johnson support Trump's action.

One year after Elon Musk's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) was established, Office of Personnel Management data reveals the scale of cuts: 9% of the civilian federal workforce has been eliminated, with approximately 300,000 layoffs announced. The most affected agencies include USAID, CFPB, HHS, and the Department of Education.

The cuts occurred in overlapping phases: "pulse check" emails to verify employee existence, voluntary resignation offers, then mass layoffs. Musk had set a goal of cutting $1 trillion from the nearly $7 trillion budget, also acknowledging errors like canceling Ebola prevention programs while cutting USAID.

Some former federal employees are finding new roles in the private sector, but many struggle to reintegrate. Paradoxically, the Trump administration is now reaching out to some employees laid off by DOGE asking if they want to return, after discovering some functions were essential.

Trump stated that DOGE's work will "conclude" by July 4, 2026, coinciding with the proposed "Great American Fair" for the 250th anniversary of the United States.

Federal Judge Brian E. Murphy of Massachusetts ruled that the Trump administration's policy of deporting immigrants to "third countries" with which they have no ties is unlawful. "It is not fine, nor is it legal" to send migrants to "an unfamiliar and potentially dangerous country" without any legal recourse, Murphy wrote in his ruling.

The ruling concerns the arrangement with El Salvador to detain Venezuelan migrants in the notorious CECOT mega-prison, and attempts to deport people to war-torn South Sudan. Murphy ruled that migrants have the right to "meaningful notice" and an opportunity to object before being removed to a third country.

The judge accused the Trump administration of "repeatedly violating - or trying to violate" his orders. In March, the Defense Department had deported at least six people to El Salvador and Mexico in violation of a temporary restraining order. Some migrants had been taken to a U.S. naval base in Djibouti.

Murphy suspended his decision for 15 days to allow the government to appeal. The case is likely headed to the Supreme Court, which ruled in the administration's favor in an earlier phase of the dispute last year.

President Trump delivers his State of the Union address, but a record 32 Democratic lawmakers boycotted - an unprecedented number. Senator Chris Van Hollen: "Trump is marching America towards fascism, and I refuse to normalize his shredding of our Constitution and democracy."

Significant symbolic gesture: the gold medal-winning women's Olympic hockey team declined Trump's invitation to attend. Trump had said he would "have to invite the women too, or he'd be impeached" - but they declined. The men's team accepted.

A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll reveals that 6 in 10 Americans believe the country is worse off than last year, and a majority thinks the "state of the union" is not strong. Support for Trump's immigration agenda is "in free fall" after federal agents shot and killed two American citizens last month.

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, the first woman to hold that office, delivered the official Democratic response from Colonial Williamsburg, invoking the Founders' spirit of resistance to tyranny.

The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown enters its second week. As of 6:00 AM today, DHS implemented emergency measures: FEMA reduced to minimum life-saving operations, Global Entry suspended, all non-essential activities ceased. This is the third DHS shutdown during the 119th Congress.

Secretary Kristi Noem blamed Democrats, who are demanding stricter controls on ICE: mandatory identification for agents, judicial warrants to enter private property, ban on wearing masks. Republicans refuse these conditions.

A new Washington Post poll shows Trump at 60% disapproval ahead of his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Trump also called the Supreme Court justices who voted against his tariffs "unpatriotic and disloyal to our Constitution" - including Gorsuch and Barrett, whom he appointed.

Meanwhile, the new 10% tariffs imposed under the Trade Act of 1974 can only last 150 days without congressional approval. When asked why he didn't want to work with the legislative branch, Trump replied: "I don't have to. I have the right to do tariffs."

In a furious reaction to the Supreme Court ruling, President Trump attacked Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett - whom he himself appointed during his first term - calling them "a disgrace" and "an embarrassment to their families." The direct attack on the judiciary represents an unprecedented escalation in presidential rhetoric against the judicial branch.

Hours after the ruling, Trump signed a new executive order imposing 15% global tariffs on all imports, effectively circumventing the Court's decision using other legal authorities. He also suggested the administration does not plan to refund companies that paid the tariffs ruled illegal: "I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years."

The ruling has produced "enormous cracks" in Republican Party unity, with many members of Congress breathing a sigh of relief at the end of IEEPA tariffs. Meanwhile, companies around the world have lined up for refunds, though trade lawyers warn the process will be chaotic.

International reactions were immediate: South Korea called an emergency ministerial meeting, China welcomed the decision, and Mexico is assessing the implications. But with the new 15% tariffs, economists warn that "nothing will change" for American consumer prices.

In a landmark ruling, the United States Supreme Court determined 6-3 that President Trump's use of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to impose tariffs is unlawful. The majority opinion, written by Chief Justice John Roberts and joined by Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett and Jackson, represents a monumental defeat for the president.

Roberts wrote: "Based on two words separated by 16 others in IEEPA—'regulate' and 'importation'—the President asserts the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time. Those words cannot bear such weight. IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs or duties."

The Learning Resources v. Trump decision could force the government to refund over $175 billion already collected. Justice Kavanaugh, in his dissent, warned that the refund process will be "a mess." Thomas and Alito voted with the minority.

Trump immediately signaled a "Plan B," suggesting he will use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs. But the ruling establishes a fundamental principle: the power to tax belongs to Congress, not the president. It's a victory for the separation of powers described in the book.

At the first official Board of Peace meeting, Trump announced that the US will contribute $10 billion, while 9 other countries pledged $7 billion for Gaza reconstruction. Five nations (Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Albania) will send troops for a 20,000-strong stabilization force, with Indonesia contributing 8,000 soldiers.

But it was another Trump statement that raised alarms: "Someday I won't be here, the United Nations will be. I think the UN is going to be much stronger. The Board of Peace is going to almost be looking over the United Nations and making sure it runs properly." The statement confirms fears that the Board is designed to undermine the existing international order.

Meanwhile, DHS issued a memo authorizing the arrest and indefinite detention of refugees who have not yet obtained a green card, for "rescreening." The policy puts tens of thousands of people who entered during the Biden administration at risk. For fiscal year 2026, Trump set a historic low ceiling of just 7,500 refugees, with priority for white South Africans.

Today February 20 the Supreme Court is expected to rule on Trump's IEEPA tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts called the tariffs "an imposition of taxes on Americans," which "has always been the core power of Congress." If the Court invalidates them, the government will have to refund over $130 billion already collected.

More than 400 judges across the United States have ruled at least 4,421 times since October that the Trump administration is detaining immigrants unlawfully, according to a Reuters analysis. Courts have repeatedly found that the administration is "ignoring longstanding legal interpretations that mandate the release of many people who are taken into immigration custody if they post a bond."

The data contradicts administration claims: less than 14% of nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by ICE in Trump's first year back had charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses, according to an internal DHS document obtained by CBS News. Public support for deportations has dropped from 59% at the start of the term to 46% now.

Meanwhile, tomorrow February 19 the first official meeting of the Board of Peace will be held at the "Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace" - the international organization created by Trump as a de facto alternative to the UN. The Board's charter grants the United States - and Trump personally - exclusive veto power over all decisions, unlike the UN Security Council where five nations share this right.

No major European ally has joined. An expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations called the organization "a top-down project to assert Trump's control over global affairs." Netanyahu will meet Trump at the White House today, but Israel has not yet signed the charter.

President Trump announced on Truth Social that his new "Board of Peace" will meet on February 19 at the US Institute of Peace in Washington - which Trump has renamed after himself. The institute, founded by Congress in 1984 as an independent federal agency for conflict prevention, is now the "Trump Institute of Peace."

The gesture exemplifies the cult of personality described in the book: the overlap between the leader's figure and state institutions, typical of authoritarian regimes.

Meanwhile, an investigation published February 15 reveals that at least 32 children entered foster care over the past year after their parents were detained or deported by ICE. Data comes from seven states: four toddlers ages 1 to 3 in Vermont (in custody for at least three months), 10 in Kansas, at least 9 in Maryland, and four each in Idaho and Virginia.

The actual number is likely much higher: the federal government lacks comprehensive data. With a record 71,000 immigrants in detention, the Trump administration has redefined what "family separation" means. Shaina Simenas of the Young Center: "It's definitely a huge problem. We work with families who were separated before under the first Trump administration and have now experienced a second family separation."

President Trump wrote on Truth Social: "There will be Voter ID for the Midterm Elections, whether Congress approves it or not!" The statement explicitly threatens to circumvent Congress using executive orders, a practice the book describes as a hallmark of authoritarian drift.

Constitutional scholars have expressed concern about the implications. Voter ID requirements imposed through executive action would bypass the traditional legislative process and could disproportionately affect minorities and low-income voters.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court announced it will rule on the legality of emergency tariffs by February 20, in a case that could set important precedents on the limits of executive power.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke on the Senate floor describing ICE as having become "a rogue force" operating without adequate congressional oversight. Schumer denounced how the agency "acts with impunity, without transparency or accountability."

Meanwhile, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat who has governed a deep-red state since 2019, called President Trump "anti-democracy" in a speech in Lexington. Beshear said: "What we're seeing is not normal governance. It's an attempt to concentrate power in ways the Founders would never have accepted."

The attacks on Trump came as the Republican-controlled House approved an additional $2 billion for ICE operations, despite criticism that the agency is exceeding its constitutional mandate.

At the 62nd Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that the rules-based world order "no longer exists" and that "a deep divide has opened between Europe and the United States." However, Merz also emphasized that "in the era of great-power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone."

Merz revealed he has held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on joining Paris' nuclear deterrence program, showing how some European countries don't want to rely on the US nuclear umbrella anymore.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that transatlantic ties faced a "defining moment": "The Old World is gone, frankly, the world I grew up in, and we live in a new era in geopolitics." US Ambassador to the UN Mike Walz presented a "Make the United Nations Great Again" (MUNGA) hat to the panel.

The Munich Security Report 2026, titled "Under Destruction," describes a world that has entered an era of "wrecking-ball politics." Transatlantic relations plunged further after Trump stepped up threats to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.

The Trump administration revealed a $38.3 billion plan to convert warehouses into immigrant detention centers, according to planning documents obtained by Bloomberg and the Washington Post. The figure exceeds the annual budgets of 22 US states.

The plan envisions an unprecedented expansion of the immigrant detention system, which officials say will "streamline operations and speed deportations." The number of ICE detainees has reached a historic record of 73,000, an 84% increase from January 2025.

Meanwhile, DHS announced the end of Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota. Border Czar Tom Homan called the operation a success, saying "Minnesota is now less of a sanctuary state for criminals." Over 4,000 undocumented immigrants have been apprehended since the operation began.

Governor Tim Walz said he is "cautiously optimistic" following the announcement, while Democrats criticized the administration for continuing to fund ICE and CBP even during the DHS shutdown.

Chief US District Judge James E. Boasberg ordered the Trump administration to facilitate the return to the United States of 137 Venezuelans illegally deported to El Salvador last March under the Alien Enemies Act, a wartime law.

The migrants had been sent to the notorious Center for Terrorism Confinement (CECOT) in El Salvador, accused of being members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The judge ruled the deportation had violated due process.

In his ruling, Boasberg wrote that the government's "responses essentially told the Court to pound sand." The judge warned that otherwise "the Government could simply remove people from the United States without providing any process and then, once they were in a foreign country, deny them any right to return for a hearing."

DHS responded by attacking the judge: "This case is no longer about the facts or law, but about Judge Boasberg's crusade to stop President Trump from doing the will of the American People." The government must pay for air travel for those who choose to return by February 27.

The House of Representatives passed a resolution to cancel Trump's tariffs on Canada with 219 votes in favor and 211 against. Six Republicans voted with Democrats: Thomas Massie (Kentucky), Don Bacon (Nebraska), Kevin Kiley (California), Jeff Hurd (Colorado), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania), and Dan Newhouse (Washington).

During the vote, Trump threatened dissenters on his Truth Social platform: "Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!" A classic example of authoritarian intimidation against members of his own party.

Rep. Jeff Hurd explained his choice: "I looked at the Constitution, I looked at what was in the best interest of my district, and I took the vote." Rep. Bacon posted that "tariffs have been a 'net negative' for the economy and are a significant tax that American consumers, manufacturers, and farmers are paying."

Even though the Senate has already passed a similar measure, Trump can veto it - and the House did not reach the two-thirds majority needed to override. However, this vote represents a rare crack in party discipline and an attempt by Congress to reassert its constitutional powers over trade.

Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin today formalized the revocation of the 2009 "endangerment finding," the Obama-era scientific declaration that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health. The White House called it "the largest deregulatory action in American history," claiming it will save "$1.3 trillion in crushing regulations."

The endangerment finding was the legal foundation for nearly all climate regulations under the Clean Air Act: vehicle emissions standards, power plant regulations, and other pollution sources. Its revocation eliminates the legal basis for fighting climate change at the federal level.

The decision directly defies established science. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recently reaffirmed that the 2009 findings were "accurate, have stood the test of time, and are now reinforced by even stronger evidence." The Supreme Court upheld the finding in 2007 (Massachusetts v. EPA) and declined to revisit it as recently as 2023.

Senator Chuck Schumer called it "a corrupt giveaway to Big Oil, plain and simple." Ironically, Elon Musk's Tesla wrote to the EPA in September urging it to uphold the endangerment finding. This action represents the dismantling of environmental protections that have stood for nearly two decades, all in the name of "deregulation."

Trump's "big, beautiful bill" and other administration policies are driving a $1.4 trillion increase in the projected federal budget deficit over the next decade, according to the latest estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035 are forecast to total $23.1 trillion. This data contradicts the administration's narrative about fiscal responsibility and the "savings" achieved through DOGE and public spending cuts.

The discrepancy between savings rhetoric and the reality of increasing deficits illustrates a typical pattern of authoritarian populism: promises of efficiency that mask policies benefiting certain groups at the expense of long-term fiscal sustainability.

California, Colorado, Illinois, and Minnesota filed suit today to block the administration from cutting hundreds of millions in public health grants. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) told Congress on Monday it planned to withhold about $600 million in grant funding from these states.

The four states' attorneys general argue the cuts are retaliation for the states' opposition to Trump's immigration crackdown. This is an explicit case of using federal power to punish political opponents.

This pattern of retaliation against "blue" states that resist administration policies represents a significant escalation: federal public health funds are being weaponized for political purposes, putting citizens' health at risk for purely political reasons.

A Washington D.C. grand jury refused the Justice Department's request to indict six Democratic lawmakers - including Senators Mark Kelly (Arizona) and Elissa Slotkin (Michigan) - who had posted a video urging military members to "refuse illegal orders." All six served in the military or intelligence agencies.

The DOJ had sought to charge them under 18 U.S.C. § 2387, a law that threatens up to 10 years in prison for anyone who "advises, counsels, urges, or causes insubordination, disloyalty, mutiny, or refusal of duty by any member of the military." Trump had called the lawmakers "traitors" who committed "sedition at the highest level" and "should be in jail," even suggesting they should be executed.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis criticized the DOJ's attempt: "Political lawfare waged by either side undermines America's criminal justice system. Thankfully in this instance, a jury saw the attempted indictments for what they really were."

It is highly unusual for grand juries to decline indictments, but the DOJ has struggled with grand juries in recent months, especially in politically charged cases. This case exemplifies the attempt to weaponize the justice system against political opponents - and its limits when it encounters democratic institutions.

According to a new NBC News poll, support for Trump's immigration agenda is in "free fall" after federal agents shot and killed two Americans last month. 67% of Americans say ICE's tactics have gone "too far," while only 23% consider them appropriate.

The numbers are striking: 49% strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of border security and immigration, up from 38% last summer and 34% in April. Trump's overall approval dropped to 39% (from 42% in December), while only 34% approve of ICE. 65% believe the country is on the wrong track.

Nearly 3 in 4 Americans want changes to ICE: 43% want it reformed, 29% want it abolished, and only 29% want to keep it in its current form. Immigration policies are also fracturing the Republican base, especially among those who identify more with the Republican Party than with the MAGA movement.

This dramatic collapse in support demonstrates that there are limits to public acceptance of policies perceived as excessive - a key element for understanding the resilience of democracies even under authoritarian pressure.

Ghislaine Maxwell, sentenced to 20 years for conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to abuse minors, sent a message to Trump during her virtual deposition before the House Oversight Committee: if the president were to grant her clemency, she would "clear his name" of any wrongdoing as it pertains to Epstein.

Maxwell's lawyer made this extraordinary overture during the hearing. Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment, refusing to answer questions. Separately, members of Congress were able to begin reviewing unredacted versions of the Epstein files.

The proposed exchange — clemency in return for favorable statements — exemplifies the transformation of presidential pardon power into an instrument of personal protection, a pattern described in the book. The offer comes as Trump has already granted pardons to January 6 rioters and threatened to pardon political allies facing criminal proceedings.

Less than 14% of nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by ICE in Trump's first year back in the White House had charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses, according to an internal Homeland Security Department document obtained by CBS News.

The data contradicts the administration's narrative justifying large-scale enforcement operations as necessary to remove "dangerous criminals." The vast majority of those arrested had no record of violent crimes.

Meanwhile, an immigration judge ruled last month that the Homeland Security Department had not met its burden of proving that Tufts University PhD student Rumeysa Ozturk was removable, and terminated proceedings against her. Ozturk was arrested last year as part of the Trump administration's targeting of pro-Palestinian campus activists.

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) — the federal agency responsible for election security — has been systematically dismantled by the Trump administration. The result: states are left alone to face cyber threats to the electoral process.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes declared: "Right now, we are effectively flying blind." His Minnesota counterpart Steve Simon added: "We do not have a sense of whether we can rely on CISA for these services as we approach a big election year in 2026."

The numbers are striking: in February 2025, CISA froze all election security activities; DOGE cut approximately 130 employees, including election security advisers. The administration's budget proposes eliminating the Election Security Program entirely — 14 positions and $39.6 million. California's Secretary of State office stated that CISA provided "little, if any, help" for their November special elections.

The pattern is exactly what the book describes: the systematic erosion of institutions that ensure free and secure elections. It is significant that Trump has recently called on Republicans to "nationalize voting" while simultaneously the federal agency that protected elections is being dismantled. The agency remains without an official director — Sean Plankey's nomination is stalled in the Senate.

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a landmark ruling allowing the indefinite detention of immigrants without the right to bond hearings. In a 2-1 decision, conservative judges Edith Jones (Reagan appointee) and Kyle Duncan (Trump appointee) overturned hundreds of lower court rulings.

The numbers are striking: according to Politico, at least 360 federal judges had rejected the Trump administration's detention policy in over 3,000 cases. Only 27 judges had supported it in approximately 130 cases. Yet, two judges on a single circuit have now reversed this overwhelming consensus.

Judge Dana Douglas (Biden appointee), in her dissent, warned that the ruling could authorize detention without bond for two million people, some of whom have resided in the US for decades. Attorney General Pam Bondi celebrated the decision as "a significant blow against activist judges."

The ruling sets up a showdown at the Supreme Court. But the pattern is exactly what the book describes: judicial forum shopping toward conservative circuits, the systematic delegitimization of judges as "activists," and the use of the judicial system itself to consolidate policies that the majority of courts had rejected.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Pentagon will end all military training programs, fellowships, and certificates with Harvard University starting in the 2026-27 academic year. "Harvard is woke; The War Department is not," Hegseth stated.

"For too long, this department has sent our best and brightest officers to Harvard, hoping the university would better understand and appreciate our warrior class. Instead, too many of our officers came back looking too much like Harvard — heads full of globalist and radical ideologies that do not improve our fighting ranks."

Hegseth announced that similar programs with other Ivy League universities will be evaluated in the coming weeks. Other elite universities have already capitulated: Columbia agreed to pay $200 million to the federal government, Brown donated $50 million to workforce development programs.

The decision fits the pattern described in the book: the systematic attack on academic institutions as part of the Trump administration's culture war, with concrete consequences for research and the formation of American leadership.

President Trump posted an AI-generated video on Truth Social depicting former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama as apes, using a centuries-old racist trope. The "Lion King"-style video showed Trump as "King of the Jungle."

Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), the only Black Republican senator, reacted sharply: "Praying it was fake because it's the most racist thing I've seen out of this White House. The President should remove it." The White House initially defended the post, calling criticism "fake outrage," before deleting it hours later and blaming a "staffer."

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump refused to apologize: "I saw only a portion of the video and then passed it down to a staffer, who should have been responsible for watching the whole thing." He condemned the racist portion of the meme but insisted he made no mistake.

During the Obama presidency, similar images appeared only in fringe political spaces. When they crossed into the mainstream, they often resulted in resignations, firings, or campaign collapses. The fact that today they come directly from the White House — and that the president refuses to apologize — illustrates the erosion of democratic norms described in the book.

The Office of Personnel Management finalized the "Schedule Policy/Career" regulation (formerly Schedule F), which takes effect on March 8, 2026. The rule allows the Trump administration to reclassify up to 50,000 federal employees (2% of the public workforce), stripping them of civil service protections that have existed for over a century.

Reclassified employees will become "at-will employees" — terminable without the procedures required by Title 5 of the U.S. Code and without appeal rights. Whistleblower complaints will no longer go to the independent Office of Special Counsel, but will instead be handled internally by the employing agency.

The proposal received over 40,000 public comments in 45 days: 94% opposed, 5% in favor. OPM Director Scott Kupor stated: "People are free to agree or disagree with any of the priorities that the president has. The only impact is if their disagreement leads them to then try to actively thwart or undermine the execution of those priorities." Democracy Forward called the rule an attempt to "weaken more than a century of bipartisan civil service protections."

Schedule F was a central recommendation of Project 2025 and confirms the book's analysis: transforming the federal bureaucracy from a technical, nonpartisan institution into a tool of political loyalty represents one of the pillars of ongoing democratic erosion.

In its annual report, Human Rights Watch issued a stark warning: President Trump "has attacked key pillars of American democracy," citing the immigration crackdown, threats to voting rights, and other policies. Executive Director Philippe Bolopion stated that global democracy has regressed to 1985 levels by some metrics, with 72% of the world's population now living under autocratic regimes.

Russia, China, and the United States are all less free than twenty years ago. Bolopion stated that in 2026 "the fight for the future of human rights will play out most sharply in the U.S., with consequences for the rest of the world." He also noted that "many Western allies have chosen to stay silent on U.S. actions because they fear increasing tariffs and weakening alliances."

The report confirms the book's analysis: American democratic regression is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a global trend that sees democracies weakening while autocracy advances. The United States' position as a democratic model is compromised, with repercussions for the entire liberal international order.

The brothers of Renee Good, an American citizen killed by an ICE agent in Minneapolis in January, testified before congressional Democrats about concerns regarding the use of force by federal immigration enforcement. The testimony included text messages from an ICE agent commenting on a shooting: "5 shots, 7 holes." Other victims of violence by federal agents also shared their experiences.

Simultaneously, a federal judge ordered federal agents to refrain from using chemical or projectile munitions for 14 days near the ICE office in Portland. The DHS Inspector General is investigating use of force by ICE agents. In Minnesota, another federal judge ordered the release of refugees detained "without warrant or cause."

In a video circulating on social media, an ICE agent in Jersey City was filmed telling a resident: "I don't need a warrant, bro." The episode exemplifies the pattern described in the book: the Trump administration has repeatedly defied judicial orders and constitutional norms, setting a dangerous precedent for the rule of law.

In an interview with former FBI Director Dan Bongino (who resigned in December), President Trump declared that Republicans should "take over" and "nationalize voting" ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. "The Republicans should say 'we want to take over.' We should take over the voting... in at least 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting. We have states that are so crooked and they're counting votes," Trump said, repeating false claims about the electoral process.

The U.S. Constitution gives states the authority to conduct federal elections, subject to laws passed by Congress. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer responded sharply: "'We want to take over, the Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.' Does Donald Trump need a copy of the Constitution? What he is saying is outlandishly illegal."

The statement confirms the pattern described in the book: Trump has long rejected the idea that Americans settle their differences at the ballot box. On the anniversary of the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, Trump briefly floated the idea of canceling future U.S. elections, stating he was so impressed with himself and his record that "when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election."

President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh, 55, Stanford professor and former Federal Reserve governor (2008-2009), as Jerome Powell's successor. Warsh will take office on May 15. An economist with classical Republican sympathies, far from MAGA culture, Warsh was among the most cautious Board members during the Lehman crisis in implementing expansionary policies.

The nomination comes after weeks of tension. Trump wanted lower interest rates at any cost ahead of the midterm elections, but the DOJ criminal investigation into Powell — over Fed headquarters renovation costs — paradoxically forced the White House into an "orthodox" choice. In a video, Powell accused the administration of trying to eliminate Fed independence, risking a new wave of inflation.

Among the defeated rivals: Chris Waller (St. Louis Fed governor), Rick Rieder (Blackrock), and Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser and frontrunner until a few weeks ago. Family ties also weighed in: Warsh is married to Jane Lauder, daughter of billionaire Roland Lauder — Trump's classmate at Wharton and holder of lithium mining concessions in Ukraine. Markets welcomed the choice, with an immediate dollar recovery.

President Trump threatened 50% tariffs on all aircraft sold in the US from Canada, escalating the trade war with the northern neighbor. The move is retaliation for Canada's refusal to certify Gulfstream Aerospace jets.

Trump also threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian products should Ottawa conclude a trade deal with China. Bombardier shares plummeted 7%.

According to the Tax Foundation, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest tax increase since 1993, costing the average American household $1,300 in 2026.

Minnesota's chief federal district judge, Patrick Schiltz, ruled that ICE violated at least 96 court orders since the beginning of January 2026. The ruling comes amid Operation Metro Surge, described by DHS as the largest immigration enforcement operation ever conducted.

Over 2,000 ICE agents and 1,000 Border Patrol agents have been deployed in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. The operation has caused hundreds of schools and businesses to close.

The number of ICE detainees reached a historic record of 73,000, an 84% increase from January 2025.

One year after wildfires devastated Los Angeles, destroying tens of thousands of homes, President Trump signed an executive order transferring permitting authority to the federal government, bypassing state and local authorities.

The order allows builders to "self-certify" compliance with standards, rather than following normal approval processes. FEMA must also verify within 60 days California's use of mitigation funds.

Governor Gavin Newsom called the order "useless," accusing the administration of failing to deliver the $34 billion in federal aid requested.

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the DOJ investigation into alleged abuses during the Obama and Biden administrations could conclude in 2026. The inquiry treats alleged violations not as isolated incidents but as part of a "conspiracy."

A grand jury was convened in Fort Pierce, Florida, starting January 12, 2026. Former CIA Director John Brennan is among those involved.

Simultaneously, the DOJ is suing Minnesota and 24 other states - all lost by Trump in 2020 - to obtain access to unredacted voter rolls. A federal judge in California dismissed the request as "unprecedented and illegal."

In temperatures of 10 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, tens of thousands marched through downtown Minneapolis in the largest day of protest against Operation Metro Surge. Over 700 businesses closed in solidarity.

The protest follows the killing of Renee Good, a 37-year-old American citizen, by an ICE agent on January 7. Minneapolis Mayor publicly ordered ICE to "get out of the city."

Vice President JD Vance responded by announcing the deployment of over 10,000 additional ICE agents nationwide.

NPR published an analysis of the first year of Trump's second presidency, concluding that the president "has presided over a sweeping expansion of executive power while eroding democratic norms." Many scholars call these developments "unprecedented in American history."

As of January 29, 2026, Trump has signed 234 executive orders, 57 memoranda, and 123 proclamations. The record for executive orders in any single 21st century term has been surpassed.

The administration and its supporters counter that the Constitution provides for precisely this type of "muscular presidency" and that voters gave him a mandate for radical changes.

Inside Higher Ed published an assessment of Trump's second presidency impact on universities: over 4,000 federal grants have been terminated, affecting more than 600 institutions in all states. Total cuts range between $6.9 and $8.2 billion.

The administration proposed 40% cuts to NIH budget ($18 billion) and 50% to the National Science Foundation. Experts estimate these cuts will cost the American economy between $10-16 billion annually in lost economic output.

Several elite universities, including Columbia and Northwestern, reached settlements with the government to restore funding, yielding on some internal policies.

One year after pardons were granted to Capitol attack convicts, at least 17 pardoned individuals have been rearrested, indicted, or convicted of other crimes, including violent offenses and threats to public officials.

Six of the pardoned are accused of child sex crimes; five of illegal weapon possession. Zachary Alam, described by prosecutors as "one of the most violent" that day, was arrested for home invasion less than five months after his pardon.

Attorney Mark McCloskey has filed compensation claims for about 400 former rioters, some seeking millions of dollars for "political persecution."

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was formally dismantled in November 2025, with its functions transferred to the Office of Personnel Management. But the legacy remains controversial.

According to the Cato Institute, DOGE "had no noticeable effect on the trajectory of spending" but "did help engineer the largest peacetime workforce reduction on record." Federal employees dropped from 3.015 million to 2.744 million (-9%).

Claimed savings of $215 billion are far from the initially promised $2 trillion. New controversies emerged over improper sharing of sensitive Social Security data with external groups.

The Supreme Court upheld 6-3 the block on deploying Illinois National Guard troops in Chicago as sought by the Trump administration. This is one of the first occasions where the Court directly opposes the president.

The ruling in Trump v. Illinois establishes that a president can only federalize the National Guard in rare circumstances where the Posse Comitatus Act allows military use for domestic law enforcement.

The Court will still rule on crucial cases: birthright citizenship, tariffs, and the attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve.

The book "Democracy in Reverse - The United States After the Second Trump Presidency" by Pierpaolo Marturano is published by Core Matrix Edizioni, offering a structural analysis of the American democratic crisis.

The volume traces the historical roots of the crisis, analyzes Trump's role as a systemic catalyst, and examines the ongoing institutional transformations: from the politicization of federal agencies to the erosion of the separation of powers.